When is Premium Riskier Than Loss

Author

Stephen J. Mildenhall

Published

2021-11-30

When is Premium Riskier Than Loss?

An analysis of US statutory insurance data since 1992 shows that premium is more uncertain and harder to forecast than loss for several casualty lines! Property lines have loss-driven volatility caused by catastrophe losses. In contrast, liability lines have premium-driven volatility caused by the underwriting and pricing cycles.

Premium to GDP 1923-2020 • cyclical growth post-WW2 • cycle driven by commercial lines • cycle by line • growth by line • surplus and premium dynamics • loss ratio volatility by line • loss and premium dynamics • COVID effect.

Presented: David Wright: Podcast, CAS, and CAS Webinar; Aon, Liberty, Everest.

CAS Webinar slides When is Premium Riskier Than Loss?

For way more detail see PIRC C.

Podcast discussions with David Wright, host of the Not Unreasonable Podcast.

  1. The Macro History of the Insurance Market
  2. Insurance History, Part 2